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| Registros recuperados: 21 | |
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| Thurlow, James; van Seventer, Dirk Ernst. |
| The paper reports on the construction and testing of a Standard International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) computable general equilibrium model for South Africa. A 1998 social accounting matrix (SAM) for South Africa is compiled using national accounts information and recently released supply-use tables. By updating to a recent year, and by distinguishing between producers and commodities, this SAM is an improvement on the existing SAM databases for South Africa. Furthermore, this SAM is made consistent with the requirements of IFPRI's standard comparative static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model is then used to simulate the economy- wide impact of a range of hypothetical policy levers, including: increased government... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16279 |
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| Pauw, Kalie; Thurlow, James. |
| Rapid economic growth has failed to significantly improve poverty and nutrition outcomes in Tanzania. This raises concerns over a decoupling of growth, poverty, and nutrition. We link recent production trends to household incomes and caloric availability using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and micro-level poverty and nutrition modules. Results indicate that the structure of economic growth—not the level—is currently constraining the rate of poverty reduction in Tanzania. Agricultural growth has been driven by larger-scale farmers that are less likely to be poor. Growth has further been concentrated in crops grown in only a few regions of the country. Slow expansion of food crops and livestock also explains the weak relationship between... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Economic growth; Poverty; Nutrition; Computable general equilibrium modeling; Tanzania; Food Security and Poverty. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/95974 |
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| Breisinger, Clemens; Thurlow, James. |
| Today’s resource boom in Africa, driven by Asian economic growth, offers new opportunities for resource-rich African countries. Contrary to the experience of previous booms, however, most mining profits now accrue to foreign companies, leaving little room for governments to use revenues for pro-poor investments or to mitigate adverse distributional impacts. Taking Zambia as a case study, this paper shows that despite privatization, Dutch disease remains a valid concern and may hamper economic diversification, worsen income distribution, and undermine poverty reduction strategies. Mining royalties must, therefore, be increased and used to finance growth-inducing investments that encourage pro-poor economic diversification, else many African countries will... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Dutch disease; Resource booms; Privatization; Income distribution; Africa; Zambia; International Relations/Trade; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42351 |
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| Thurlow, James. |
| This paper assesses the economy-wide impact of implementing and financing a universal or basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa. The various financing scenarios suggested by the proponents of the grant are presented, and these are compared using an applied general equilibrium model for the South African economy. The results indicate that the required changes in direct and indirect tax rates needed to finance the grant without increasing the government deficit are substantially higher than currently predicted. Furthermore, the alternative of reducing government recurrent expenditure to finance the BIG will undoubtedly undermine other government policy objectives. The paper therefore proposes a shift in the current debate, away from determining which of... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16297 |
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| Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James. |
| Zambia's strong dependence on copper exports has suppressed other tradables sectors, indicative of a Dutch disease phenomenon. The current copper crisis will have strong economic effects, possibly reversing such Dutch disease effects. We use a computable general equilibrium model built around a 1995 social accounting matrix to simulate the short- and long-run effects of two scenarios that reflect the current crisis, a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of copper mining. Compared to the short run, the long run is characterized by more flexibility in production technology and capital allocation. Both scenarios require a significant reduction in the "non-copper" trade deficit, absorption, and household consumption. The... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Zambia; Copper; Structural adjustment; Agriculture; General equilibrium; International Development; C68; O55; Q17; Q32. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25805 |
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| Thurlow, James. |
| Trade liberalization is a central part of South Africa’s post-Apartheid development strategy. However, despite considerable reforms, the country has failed to generate pro-poor growth, with both unemployment and inequality worsening over the last ten years. This has raised concern that trade liberalization may have worked against the country’s development objectives. This study uses a dynamic general equilibrium and microsimulation model to assess the effects of trade liberalization on growth, employment and poverty in South Africa. More specifically, it examines how men and women have been affected differently and whether liberalization has contributed to the faster rise in female unemployment and poverty. The results suggest that trade policies have not... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55397 |
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| Thurlow, James. |
| Despite its strong growth record, Botswana faces two prominent development challenges: the onslaught of HIV/AIDS and the slowdown in diamond mining. This study estimates the growth and distributional impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and considers its implications for the country’s development prospects, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model that accounts for the cost of treatment. The results of this analysis indicate that HIV/AIDS reduces GDP growth by 1.6 percent, increases the absolute poverty headcount by 1.5 percentage points and disproportionately hurts labor-intensive manufacturing. Therefore, while mining has dominated the recent slowdown in Botswana’s growth, the present findings suggest that HIV/AIDS is... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Health Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/42417 |
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| Lofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James. |
| As a result of Zambia's dependence on copper mining, both the falling world copper price and the possible withdrawal of investment from the mining sector might seriously threaten economic growth and stability. Accordingly, the impact of a 20 percent reduction in world copper prices and a complete collapse of the copper mining sector are modeled using a 1995 computable general equilibrium model for Zambia. Results indicate that the fall in world copper prices will place significant pressure on non- mining exports, with much of the burden of raising foreign exchange falling on the food, beverages and tobacco, and textiles and garment sectors. However, the agricultural and agro-related industries are the most export-responsive (albeit from initially low... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16309 |
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| Thurlow, James; Wobst, Peter. |
| The development of effective and sustainable economic policies for Tanzania requires access to appropriate databases. One such database is a social accounting matrix (SAM) that details the structure of the entire economy, taking into account the patterns of production and demand, and various institutional relationships. Prior to this study the most recent SAM for mainland Tanzania was for 1992 and was based on past household budget and labor force surveys. Following the release of newer versions of these two surveys as well as a new input-output table for 1992, it is desirable to construct a new SAM for the country. Furthermore, given that Tanzania is committed to reducing national poverty, it is necessary that this new SAM is able to address questions... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: International Development. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/16262 |
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| Lofgren, Hans; Thurlow, James; Robinson, Sherman. |
| Zambia is one of the poorest countries in Africa. Despite substantial reform during the 1990s, the economy has remained heavily dependent on urban-based mining. Copper's long-standing dominance led to a strong bias against agriculture, which undermined the sector's growth and export potential. Consequently poverty has remained concentrated within marginalized rural areas. Recent volatility in copper exports and growing foreign debt indicate the need for further economic diversification and pro-poor growth. These needs have been clearly identified in the country's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), which outlines a series of policy objectives aimed at combating HIV/AIDS, reversing the deterioration of education and rural infrastructure, and... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Food Security and Poverty; International Development. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/60181 |
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| Diao, Xinshen; Hazell, Peter B.R.; Resnick, Danielle; Thurlow, James. |
| This paper provides a nuanced perspective on debates about the potential for Africa’s smallholder agriculture to stimulate growth and alleviate poverty in an increasingly integrated world. In particular, the paper synthesizes both the traditional theoretical literature on agriculture’s role in the development process and discusses more recent literature that remains skeptical about agriculture’s development potential for Africa. In order to examine in greater detail the relevance for Africa of both the “old” and “new” literatures on agriculture, the paper provides a typology of African countries based on their stage of development, agricultural conditions, natural resources, and geographic location… More broadly, the paper demonstrates that conventional... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Growth-poverty linkages; Smallholders; Poverty alleviation; Agricultural development; Africa; Economic aspects; Agricultural sector; Ethiopia; Ghana; Rwanda; Uganda; Zambia; International Development. |
| Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55405 |
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| Registros recuperados: 21 | |
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